Growth in U.S. Restaurant Employment Has Stopped: Is the Hiring Market Cooling?

The "labor shortage" issue that has been at the center of the U.S. restaurant sector's agenda for years post-pandemic is entering a different phase. Recent data shows that it is not the demand for labor that has disappeared, but rather that businesses are behaving much more cautiously regarding workforce expansion.

According to preliminary data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employment in food and beverage services and drinking places decreased by 26,100 people to approximately 12.35 million in July 2026, seasonally adjusted. A decline had also occurred in June. The National Restaurant Association points out that this marks the first time the sector has lost jobs for two consecutive months since early 2025.

The last six months also show a change in direction. According to the Association's calculations, the sector lost approximately 20,000 jobs during this period, while the restaurant workforce had grown by more than 142,000 in the previous six months. The organization emphasizes that monthly data can be volatile and that revisions to past data may be significant. Nevertheless, the recent movement indicates a clear slowdown in the restaurant labor market.

Restaurant employment is approaching pre-pandemic levels

As of July 2026, employment in food and beverage businesses in the U.S. is only about 62,000 people, or 0.5 percent above the February 2020 level. In other words, after a strong recovery post-pandemic, the total number of employees is now quite close to the pre-pandemic reference point.

However, the same picture is not seen across all segments of the sector.

Full-service restaurants have still not been able to regain their pre-pandemic workforce. As of June 2026, the number of employees in this segment is approximately 183,000 people, or 3.2 percent lower compared to February 2020. In contrast, employment in non-alcoholic beverage and snack places, which include coffee, donut, ice cream, and similar businesses, is about 28 percent above pre-pandemic levels. Quick-service and fast-casual businesses are also about 1.4 percent above.

This divergence is significant. The statement "the number of employees in the restaurant sector is decreasing" does not alone explain the differences between business models. The structure of the workforce varies significantly based on service style, menu complexity, need for table service, technology usage, and how many employees can effectively run the operation.

The number of open positions is also declining

The second indicator of the cooling in hiring is the number of open positions.

According to an assessment by the National Restaurant Association based on BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data, the number of open positions in the restaurant and accommodation sector decreased from a revised 752,000 in May to 684,000 in June. This is the lowest level seen since August 2020. The average for the last four months is 726,000 open positions.

For comparison, during the 2017-2019 period, the sector had an average of 835,000 open positions per month. Therefore, the current demand for labor has not completely disappeared, but it is below both the extraordinarily tight labor market post-pandemic and the pre-pandemic average.

The number of hires in June also fell from 792,000 to 715,000, reaching the lowest level in 17 months. In the same month, separations rose to 816,000. Thus, the balance between those hired and those who left has shifted into negative territory.

This picture does not directly lead businesses to conclude that "finding staff is now easy."

Fewer open positions do not mean the talent gap has closed

At the beginning of 2026, the National Restaurant Association had projected a different annual outlook. The organization anticipated that the restaurant and foodservice sector would create more than 100,000 new jobs throughout the year, bringing the total sector workforce to 15.8 million. The research indicated that about three-quarters of operators planned to hire, but particularly expected difficulties in finding experienced managers and chefs.

The slowdown that emerged in the summer does not necessarily mean that this forecast will not materialize; however, it indicates that hiring for the remainder of the year has become more critical from a forecasting perspective.

Here, two separate issues must be distinguished: the number of employees and the availability of employees with the right skills.

A business reducing its number of open positions does not necessarily mean that experienced chefs, restaurant managers, shift supervisors, or staff with specific service skills are easier to find. Indeed, the Association's research at the beginning of the year also shows that operators expect to face challenges, especially in experienced positions.

Employee retention remains a significant issue

While the labor market cools, the fact that employee mobility has not completely disappeared is noteworthy.

In June, the number of voluntary separations in the accommodation and food services sector increased from 598,000 to 638,000. The average resignation rate in the sector for 2026 is at 4.3 percent. Although this rate is lower than the extraordinarily high levels post-pandemic, it indicates that employers cannot ignore the issue of employee retention.

Therefore, the balance of power in the labor market cannot be read solely through the question "how many people are looking for jobs?" Factors such as working hours, quality of management, wage policy, training opportunities, shift scheduling, and career development continue to influence whether experienced employees stay with the business.

What does the new era require from businesses?

Recent data highlights a different approach to workforce planning for restaurant managers.

Post-pandemic, many businesses prioritized filling open positions as quickly as possible. In a slower labor market, the issue is not just the volume of hiring, but measuring exactly what hours, which positions, and what skill levels of staff are truly needed.

Key indicators for businesses to track include sales per employee, labor cost per shift, overtime, employee turnover rate, time to fill open positions, post-training performance, and staffing needs during peak hours.

Excessive staff reductions during a period of slowed hiring also carry risks. If demand accelerates again, it may not be possible to quickly regain experienced staff. This risk is more pronounced in full-service restaurants, where service quality is directly tied to employee experience.

How should this be interpreted for Turkey?

U.S. data is not a direct indicator of the Turkish restaurant labor market. Due to differences in wage structure, labor legislation, demographics, tourism season, and business models, it would not be accurate to transfer these figures to Turkey.

However, the management problem that arises is quite familiar: businesses need to control personnel costs while not losing operational capacity and critical competencies in the face of demand uncertainty.

Especially in seasonal businesses or restaurants where intensity varies significantly by day and hour, planning shifts based on demand, cross-training, and measuring productivity on a position basis become more important than maintaining a fixed number of employees.

Stafflink's Perspective

The situation in the U.S. should not be interpreted as "the staffing problem in restaurants is over." A more accurate interpretation is that the competition for labor post-pandemic is increasingly shifting from quantity to competence, efficiency, and employee retention.

For employers, having more candidates available may facilitate hiring in the short term. However, businesses that focus solely on downsizing their workforce may face a shortage of experienced employees when demand rises again.

In our view, the measure of effective workforce management in the upcoming period will not be "working with the least number of employees"; rather, it will be about placing the right number of employees with the right skills in operations at the right time. Metrics such as employee turnover, shift efficiency, and retention of critical positions should also be among the key indicators on the management dashboard.