US Wine Imports Decreased by 25% in the First Half: Tariffs Changing Menus and Distribution

Wine imports in the US significantly declined in the first half of 2026. According to the Interprofessional Organization of Wine of Spain (OIVE), the country imported 536.8 million liters of wine from January to June. This amount is 16.8% lower than the same period last year. The total value of imports decreased by 25.2% to 2.43 billion euros.

In other words, approximately 108.3 million liters less wine entered the US in six months compared to last year, and import spending decreased by over 816 million euros. The average import price also fell by 10.1%, dropping to 4.52 euros per liter.

The Drinks Business associates this decline with the tariff policies of the Trump administration. While the impact of tariff pressure is real, the data points to a more complex market picture.

Bottled Wine Faces the Biggest Loss

The largest category by value in US imports remained bottled wine.

In the first six months of 2026, the value of bottled wine imports fell to 1.69 billion euros, with an annual decline of 26.6%. The volume decreased by 12.4% to 318.2 million liters. This category accounts for approximately 70% of total import value.

There was also a decline in sparkling wines. The import value decreased by 19.8% to 630.2 million euros, while the volume fell by 9.6% to 90.3 million liters.

A notable exception was bag-in-box wines. The import value of this segment increased by 12%, while the volume rose by nearly 50%. Although it is a small category, the rising price sensitivity in the market may signal a shift to more economical formats.

France and Italy Maintain Leadership but Suffer Significant Losses

France and Italy continued to be the two largest wine suppliers to the US.

The value of wine sales from France to the US fell by 25.2% in the first half to approximately 955.8 million euros. In Italy, the decline was 25%, with export value at approximately 790.9 million euros. Together, the two countries accounted for about 72% of the total wine import value in the US.

Italy maintained its leadership in volume with 170.2 million liters, while France ranked second with approximately 99 million liters.

These results also explain why European producers are so sensitive to tariffs in the US. The US is a critical market for French and Italian producers, not only large but also where premium products can be sold at high values.

Tariff Regime Continued to Change in 2026

The US-European trade regime changed several times throughout 2025 and 2026.

European Union wines were subjected to a 15% US tariff in the summer of 2025. However, in February 2026, the US Supreme Court overturned a significant portion of the broad tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump's national emergency powers. Following this, the administration began to implement new tariffs based on different legal grounds. Reuters reported in March that there was at least a 10% additional cost continuing on many products imported from Europe.

Industry sources report that as of July, the 15% tariff framework on EU wines has come back into effect. Therefore, it is not accurate to explain the entirety of 2026 with a single, unchanging tariff rate.

The problem for businesses lies precisely here: unpredictability as much as cost.

Restaurants Have Started Changing Their Wine Lists

The impact of tariffs on the HORECA sector is not only visible in import statistics.

US restaurants, retailers, and distributors interviewed by Reuters in March reported that they are reorganizing their product lists due to rising costs, particularly for Champagne, Crémant, and some European-origin wines. Some businesses have started to turn to lower-priced imported products or US-produced wines.

According to Reuters, in 2025, retail prices for imported wines saw increases of approximately 5-12%, while some restaurant groups removed long-used European labels from their lists.

The cost mechanism here is significant.

The tariff is not paid directly by the foreign producer. The cost at customs falls on the US importer. The importer can pass this on to the distributor, the distributor to the restaurant, and the restaurant to the customer, either fully or partially. Since a commercial margin is added at each stage, the additional cost at the port can translate into a higher figure in the final restaurant price.

Domestic Wine May Not Automatically Be the Winner

At first glance, tariffs may seem to provide an advantage to US producers.

However, the issue in the wine trade is that the customer of imported Bordeaux or Barolo does not automatically switch to California wine at the same price point.

According to OIV data, global wine consumption is expected to decline by 2.7% in 2025, dropping to approximately 208 million hectoliters, marking one of the lowest levels since 1957. The US market is not outside this broader consumption pressure.

Therefore, it would be incorrect to interpret the entire decline in imports as "sales passing to domestic producers." Some of the demand may shift to other products; some may move to lower price segments, and some may be completely lost.

For Restaurants, the Main Issue is Not Bottle Cost but Contribution Margin

Developments in the US present a familiar operational problem for restaurants in Turkey that work with imported beverages and wines.

When the purchase price of a bottle increases by 10%, it may not always be possible for the restaurant to raise the menu price by the same percentage. Especially in already high-priced wines, the psychological price threshold comes into play.

In this case, the business has three options: to give up margin, to raise prices, or to change the label.

In a well-managed wine list, decisions should not be made solely based on purchase price. Contribution margin per bottle, sales velocity, stock duration, and glass sales loss should be evaluated together.

Stafflink's View

According to Stafflink, the most important lesson from the 25% value loss in US wine imports is not the tariff itself, but how the cost shock has spread throughout the distribution chain.

For products like wine, which have strong origin and brand identity, the importer, distributor, or restaurant cannot always direct the customer to an equivalent alternative. Therefore, the cost increase does not only raise prices; it also changes the product list, stock policy, and customer preferences.

At the same time, attributing all current figures to tariffs may create a misdiagnosis in the industry. The weakness in US wine consumption and previously pulled-forward imports also play a role in the decline.

The correct approach from a restaurant perspective is to measure which labels are no longer producing sustainable contribution margins and which alternatives the customer has truly switched to, rather than simply saying "imported wine has become more expensive."