Antalya Lost 679 Thousand Tourists in 8 Months: What Are the Main Problem Markets?

Antalya is still hosting over 11 million foreign visitors in the 2026 season.

However, it is behind last year.

According to the Antalya Provincial Directorate of Culture and Tourism, 11 million 23 thousand 586 foreign visitors arrived in the city from January to August. Compared to approximately 11 million 702 thousand visitors in the same period of 2025, the loss is about 679 thousand people, with a decline of 5.8%. In August, with 2 million 664 thousand 364 foreign visitors, the annual decline was 1.7%.

When these two rates are read together, an important feature of the season emerges:

The loss that occurred in the early months of the year has not completely closed in August, but the rate of decline has significantly slowed.

For Antalya, the next question is not just how many tourists will come by the end of the year.

It is more important to understand which markets have permanent losses, which markets are recovering, and how the decreasing tourist volume reflects on hotel revenues.

2025 Was Already Slightly Below the Record

To correctly assess the 5.8% decline in 2026, it is necessary to look back another year.

In the first eight months of 2025, Antalya hosted 11 million 702 thousand 733 foreign visitors. This figure was only 0.25% below the record level of 11 million 732 thousand 44 people in the same period of 2024. In other words, the first eight months of 2025 had largely passed horizontally on a high base.

The decline in 2026 is different from this.

The loss of approximately 679 thousand people is now statistically more significant than a small fluctuation.

Nevertheless, the volume above 11 million shows that Antalya's international tourism scale is still very large.

Therefore, it is not correct to read the situation as "tourism is over" or "there is no problem".

Antalya has maintained its high volume but has lost its growth momentum.

Russia is Slowing the Decline

Russia continues to be Antalya's largest source market.

In the first eight months of 2026, approximately 2 million 667 thousand visitors came from Russia. The annual change is only at the level of a 0.1% increase.

The share of Russians among total foreign visitors reached 25.9%.

The performance in August was even stronger:

The number of visitors from Russia increased by 8% compared to the same month last year, reaching 688 thousand 89. The increase is about 52 thousand people.

This result is critical for the season.

Because while losses in other major markets continue, Russia's growth in August seems to have contributed to the total decline rate decreasing to 1.7%.

However, another risk emerges for Antalya here:

Market concentration.

Russia and Germany Bring More Than 43% of Total Demand

The second largest market is Germany.

In the first eight months of 2026, approximately 2 million 83 thousand visitors came from Germany, while the market shrank by 5.5% annually. The share of Germans in Antalya's foreign visitor traffic is about 20%.

When Russia and Germany are considered together, the two countries account for more than 43% of Antalya's foreign tourism movement.

This concentration creates both strength and vulnerability.

Economic or geopolitical issues in Russia.

Decline in consumer demand in Germany.

Changes in flight capacity.

Reduction in tour operators' programs.

A significant weakening in just one of these markets could change Antalya's overall outcome.

Market diversification is therefore not only a goal of the marketing department to "find new countries" but also a matter of risk management for the destination.

Loss in the UK is More Severe

The decline in the UK, Antalya's third largest source market, is more pronounced.

In the first eight months, the number of visitors from the UK decreased by approximately 12%, falling just above 985 thousand. The market's share in Antalya is about 9.5%.

In August, arrivals from the UK also declined by 9%, reaching 211 thousand 923.

This is particularly a data point to be monitored for Antalya.

The UK has been one of the strategically growing markets in Turkish tourism in recent years. Additionally, the expansion of British tour operators' programs in Antalya, Dalaman, and Bodrum has played an important role in Turkey's market diversification.

Therefore, the approximately 12% eight-month loss in the UK should not be dismissed merely as a seasonal volume decline.

Price competition.

Capacity of competing destinations.

Package tour prices.

Sterling/TL balance.

School holiday periods.

Flight costs.

These need to be examined individually.

The eight-month visitor numbers from open sources do not explain the reason for the decline alone.

Poland is No Longer an Automatic Growth Market

One of the notable markets for Antalya in recent years has been Poland.

In the first eight months of 2026, approximately 855 thousand Polish visitors came to Antalya. This number is 6% lower than the same period last year.

In August, however, the market reached 223 thousand 918 visitors with a small increase of nearly 1%.

This distinction is also important.

Although the total eight-month loss continues, the positive turn in August's performance may indicate that the market could recover during the season.

However, it is too early to say that the trend has changed with just one month's increase.

Antalya should not view the Central and Eastern European markets, which provided rapid growth in previous years, as "guaranteed growth areas" anymore.

Ukraine is Small but Sending Positive Signals

In the first eight months of 2026, the number of visitors from Ukraine to Antalya increased by 4.4%, reaching approximately 309 thousand.

Before the war, there were periods when Ukraine could send over a million visitors to Antalya annually.

The current volume is still far from those levels.

However, it is noteworthy that Ukraine and Hungary are among the limited number of countries showing an increase among the top 20 source markets.

This indicates that the destination should monitor capacity in recovering or growing medium-sized markets, rather than just defending its existing large markets.

Why is the 1.7% Decline in August Important?

The total loss from January to August is 5.8%.

In August, however, it was only 1.7%.

This difference indicates that the first part of the season was weaker.

In April, the number of visitors arriving in Antalya by air decreased by 18% year-on-year, falling to approximately 969 thousand.

Therefore, the 1.7% decline in August represents a significant recovery compared to the double-digit loss in the spring months.

However, it is still not sufficient to say "Antalya has recovered".

Because the deficit in the first eight months has not been closed, and there are still approximately 679 thousand tourists missing.

The performance in September-October is therefore becoming more critical for the season finale.

For Hoteliers, the Number of Tourists Alone is Not Enough

The arrival of 679 thousand fewer tourists in Antalya does not automatically mean a proportional loss in hotel revenues.

To make this statement, at least;

overnight stays,

average length of stay,

ADR,

occupancy,

per capita spending,

share of accommodation outside hotels

and package price

data is needed.

For example, if the number of visitors decreases by 5.8% while the average room price increases by 10% in euro terms, some businesses may maintain their revenues.

The opposite is also possible.

While the number of tourists remains stable, high costs and price pressure can reduce profitability.

Therefore, the discussion about Antalya in 2026 should not be limited to just how many tourists came.

It should also measure how much economic value can be generated from the remaining tourists when fewer tourists arrive.

Last Minute Discounts to Save Occupancy are Risky

When demand falls short of expectations, one of the classic reflexes of hotels is to lower prices.

This method can accelerate the sale of empty rooms.

However, when used continuously;

it can lower ADR,

penalize early booking customers,

lead tour operators to expect lower prices,

erode the brand's price position.

Especially in all-inclusive resorts, price reductions do not only decrease room revenue.

The guest's food and beverage and operational costs continue within the same price.

Therefore, while the room appears full, the margin can quickly narrow.

The main challenge for Antalya in the 2026 season in terms of revenue management will be to maintain occupancy without completely losing price discipline.

Cost Pressure is More Visible in the All-Inclusive Model

Antalya's large-scale resort economy is built on high bed capacity and high occupancy.

This system becomes sensitive when volume decreases.

The facility still has to operate;

its kitchen,

pool,

animation,

landscaping,

energy,

security

and large workforce.

As the total number of guests decreases, the burden of fixed costs per room may increase.

Therefore, a 5-6% loss in destination volume should be managed carefully, especially for high fixed-cost businesses, even if it does not create the same result in all hotels.

It is important not only to bring back the number of tourists but also to bring them back at the right price.

Market-Based Single Price Strategy May Not Work

Another message from the 2026 figures is that source markets do not move in the same direction.

Russia is increasing by 8% in August.

Germany is decreasing by 4%.

The UK is decreasing by 9%.

Poland is slightly increasing.

This table shows that a single price for Antalya will not produce the same result in all markets.

Tour operator distribution.

Direct reservations.

Flight capacity.

Early booking behavior.

Family size.

Average stay.

Different in each country.

Hotel sales teams need to monitor not just total occupancy but also country mix and channel-based net revenue more closely.

For example, a small volume increase in a market with low commission may leave more net contribution to the business than a larger growth in another market with high commission.

Antalya's Year-End Exam is More Than Just Numbers

By the end of August, exceeding 11 million foreign visitors is still a large volume.

However, after 2025, which was close to the 2024 record, the 5.8% loss in 2026 raises questions about the destination's automatic growth assumption.

The Russian market is strong.

Germany is still above two million.

The UK and Poland are maintaining their high volumes.

There is limited recovery in Ukraine.

In contrast, most of the major markets are behind last year.

For Antalya, the periods of September, October, and possibly extending into November are therefore important not only for reducing the number of lost tourists but also for maintaining hotels' year-end profitability.

Stafflink's View

In our opinion, the most critical data in Antalya's 2026 first eight-month table is not the 5.8% decline itself.

The composition of the loss by market.

Russia is stable overall and growing strongly in August.

In contrast, three major markets, Germany, the UK, and Poland, are declining on an eight-month basis.

This situation could make Antalya more dependent on a few large source markets again.

For hotel businesses, the solution should not only be to fill the gap with discounts.

Net room revenue by market.

Channel costs.

Average stay.

F&B consumption.

Repeat bookings.

These should be measured together.

Because the real question for 2026 is more operational than "Will Antalya see 17 million tourists again?":

Can Antalya create sustainable value from each guest that will cover rising costs?

The 1.7% decline in August indicates improvement compared to spring.

However, the deficit of 679 thousand people in the first eight months has not been closed.

The remainder of the season will show how much the destination can recover its tourist volume; hotel balances will reveal whether this recovery truly translates into profit.