Restaurant Spending is Increasing, Chains are Not Getting the Same Share

One of the long-standing explanations used in the U.S. restaurant sector is that customers have been staying away from dining out due to economic pressures.

However, July 2026 data shows a more complex picture.

According to Bank of America card data, restaurant spending increased by 3.3% compared to the same month last year. The same increase was at 1.8% in July 2025.

The number of transactions also recovered. Restaurant transactions grew by 1.1% in July 2026; a year earlier, the increase was 0.8%.

This means consumers are not completely giving up on restaurants.

But they are not distributing their money equally among all restaurants.

Growth is not going to chains at the same rate

According to results reported by Nation’s Restaurant News from Bank of America data, national chains are not capturing the growth in the overall restaurant market.

In the last three months:

fast food,
casual dining
and fast-casual

chains' sales growth remained at 1% or below.

In the pizza category, sales declined.

In contrast, independent and regional restaurants' sales grew by about 4%.

This difference is significant.

Because if the problem is not a complete weakening of demand for the restaurant category, it is necessary to further examine why chains are losing their share of customer preference.

Sysco also says independents are stronger

This observation does not only come from Bank of America card data.

Sysco CEO Kevin Hourican previously noted that independent "mom-and-pop" restaurants have been performing better than chains in the current environment according to the company's customer data.

Hourican stated that the assumption that national chains would automatically leave small businesses behind due to strong loyalty programs and technology infrastructure did not materialize in their data.

This situation shows that the scale advantage in restaurant operations does not always translate into consumer preference.

Chains may have advantages in:

purchasing,
technology,
advertising,
loyalty programs

while independent businesses can create different value through:

locality,
uniqueness,
product variety,
venue identity.

Low-income consumers are spending again

One of Bank of America’s most striking findings is the change among income groups.

In the last three months, the growth in restaurant spending among low-income consumers has been stronger than that of middle and high-income groups.

Bank of America Institute's August 2026 Consumer Checkpoint study also shows that the previously observed strong "K-shaped" divergence in consumer spending has decreased, with spending growth among income groups becoming closer. Total card spending increased by 5% year-on-year in July.

However, interpreting this data as "the low-income consumer no longer has economic problems" would be incorrect.

According to the National Restaurant Association's second-quarter consumer survey, 36% of consumers say they spent less at restaurants compared to the previous quarter, and value-oriented behaviors remain strong.

Therefore, while customers may increase their restaurant spending, they can also be more selective at the same time.

Pizza is an exception among low-income groups

An interesting exception in Bank of America data is pizza.

While overall restaurant spending among low-income consumers is increasing, spending in the pizza category has declined more compared to other income segments.

This is an important signal for pizza chains.

For many years, pizza has been one of the strong "value" categories for large families and price-sensitive customers.

However, consumers may now find more options within the same budget:

fast food,
local restaurants,
fast casual
or other promotional products.

In this case, pizza brands should no longer automatically assume their historical natural price advantage.

Gen Z spending is increasing faster

There is a similar change among age groups as well.

According to Bank of America data, Gen Z consumers' restaurant spending has grown faster than that of other age groups, and the increase has spread across all major categories in the sector.

This finding is consistent with older Technomic studies.

In Technomic data reported by NRN in 2025, Gen Z had surpassed the Millennials group in restaurant usage frequency, and it was noted that beverage innovation was particularly important in attracting young consumers to restaurants.

Therefore, the young customer problem for chains may not be "they are not going to restaurants".

The question is more about:

Which restaurants are they going to?

Why might independent restaurants have an advantage?

Bank of America’s February 2026 restaurant study indicated that independent restaurants showed stronger spending growth compared to chains over the past year, particularly among high-income groups.

It is not possible to say that there is a single reason for this performance.

However, there are several possible advantages.

Independent businesses can:

change their menu more quickly,
develop products closer to local consumers,
be more unique in venue experience,
make social media communication more personal.

The scale of chains can bring standardization, but it can sometimes make differentiation more difficult.

Therefore, while "we are the same everywhere" can be a strong brand promise for chains, it can also create a feeling of "there's nothing new" for some customers.

Pressure on menu prices is easing somewhat

Bank of America believes that price dynamics may also play a role in the recovery of restaurant spending.

Restaurant inflation has risen faster than grocery inflation since 2019.

The recent slowdown in the pace of restaurant price increases, along with faster price increases for certain grocery items like eggs and chicken wings, may have narrowed the price gap between dining out and eating at home in certain categories.

This situation could create an advantage for restaurants.

However, consumers may not directly perceive the slowdown in menu prices as "cheap".

The price level is still high.

Therefore, the perception of value is formed not only by low prices but also by a combination of:

portion,
quality,
service,
experience
and convenience.

Why doesn't the value campaign solve everything for chains?

In the last two years, major chains in the U.S. have heavily invested in value menus and promotions.

However, Bank of America data shows that despite this, the increase in total restaurant spending has not gone to chains at the same rate.

This illustrates the limits of applying the value strategy solely as a price discount.

Even when consumers are looking for "cheap" products, they are also evaluating other signals such as:

whether the product is truly filling,
its quality,
the venue experience,
whether the brand is current.

Continuous discounts also carry the risk of making the brand's normal price appear excessively expensive.

The industry is growing overall in 2026, but margins are under pressure

The National Restaurant Association expects U.S. restaurant and foodservice sales to reach $1.55 trillion in 2026.

The estimated real sales growth is only 1.3%.

This difference is significant.

While nominal sales are rising, the actual volume and profitability of the business are not increasing at the same pace.

At the same time, the National Restaurant Association highlights high operating costs, irregular traffic, and consumer price sensitivity as fundamental risks in the sector.

Therefore, even if independent restaurants show strong sales growth, it cannot be automatically said that this means higher profits.

What KPI should chains focus on?

In this environment, it is not enough for chains to only monitor same-store sales data.

More explanatory indicators include:

Traffic: Is the sales increase coming from more customers or price increases?

Transactions: Is the actual number of transactions increasing?

Average check: How much is the average check growing?

Value mix: What is the share of promotional sales?

Gen Z penetration: Is the share of young customers increasing?

Local share: How much faster are independent restaurants growing in the same area?

Frequency: Are loyalty members coming more often, or only during promotional periods?

Thus, chains can more accurately diagnose why they are not capturing the same share while the market grows.

Implications for Turkey

It would not be correct to directly adapt U.S. data to the Turkish restaurant market.

However, the behavioral inference is familiar.

In Turkey, large chains have advantages in:

scale,
purchasing,
digital application,
loyalty programs.

Independent restaurants can differentiate themselves with local flavors, unique menus, and venue identity.

During periods of economic pressure, customers may not only go for the "cheapest" option.

They may allocate their budget to a more meaningful restaurant experience less frequently.

Therefore, chains may need to redefine why they should be preferred instead of just producing more campaigns.

Stafflink’s View

In our opinion, the strongest message from Bank of America data is not that consumers are not giving up on restaurants; rather, it is that they are distributing their restaurant budget more selectively.

While total spending grew by 3.3%, the fact that most chains remained around 1% shows that the issue is not solely the economic environment.

Customers have money and are using restaurants.

But they are not always choosing the national brand.

The real question for chains is no longer "how do we bring customers back with discounts?" but rather:

“Which value, uniqueness, or experience offered by independent restaurants have we lost?”