7 Million Tourists Expected from Russia to Turkey: Market Maintains Strength Rather Than Growing

The expectation for the end of 2026 is shaping up to be around 7 million visitors from Russia, one of the largest source markets for Turkish tourism.

Voskan Arzumanov, an expert from the Russian Tourism Industry Union (RST) and Commercial Director of Tez Tour, stated that they find the 7 million figure realistic based on the preliminary forecasts of Turkish sector representatives. Considering that 2025 is expected to end with approximately 6.9 million Russian visitors, this expectation indicates the preservation of the current high volume rather than strong growth.

Tourism Güncel also reported in its news dated September 9, 2026, that the year-end forecast is approximately 7 million. However, this figure is not the actual year-end data; it is a sector estimate. The exact total for 2026 will only be visible after the year is completed and official entry statistics are released.

Russia was again in first place in July

Data throughout the year shows that Russia maintains its weight in terms of Turkey.

According to the results of July 2026, evaluated by AKTOB, approximately 1 million 20 thousand Russian visitors came to Turkey in just that month. Thus, Russia became the country sending the most visitors to Turkey in July. Germany followed with about 968 thousand, and the United Kingdom with 544 thousand visitors.

This table shows that the Russian market is still one of Turkey's most important volume producers during the high summer season.

However, the year-end estimate of 7 million carries another message: the size of the market no longer solely means growth.

Considering that approximately 6.9 million Russian visitors came to Turkey in 2025, the 7 million scenario for 2026 means limited annual growth.

Both Antalya and Istanbul should be considered

The Russian market is often identified with Antalya in Turkish tourism. While this relationship is strong, the total figure does not consist solely of holiday visits to Antalya.

Arzumanov emphasizes that the 7 million estimate covers all Russian traffic to Turkey, including Istanbul. Istanbul's significance as an important center for both tourist visits and travel connected to third countries affects the total entry figures.

According to data from the Istanbul Provincial Directorate of Culture and Tourism, Russia was one of Istanbul's largest foreign markets in 2025, with approximately 2.02 million visitors. In March and April 2026, Russia also ranked first as the country sending the most foreign visitors to Istanbul; approximately 181 thousand 800 Russian visitors were recorded in March, and 193 thousand 600 in April.

Therefore, the expression "7 million Russian tourists" should not be read directly as "7 million Antalya holidaymakers."

Turkey is one of the strongest overseas destinations for Russians

In the summer season assessment of the Russian Tourism Industry Union, it is stated that Turkey and Egypt constitute 88% of the organized overseas holiday market in 2026. While Turkey continues to be one of the main destinations in terms of volume, Asian markets like Vietnam and China are showing faster growth.

This competition is significant for Turkey.

As the options for Russian tourists' overseas travel expand again, Turkey can no longer rely on being one of the few accessible countries.

As flight capacities to destinations like China, Vietnam, Thailand, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates increase, price, product quality, and overall package value are becoming more decisive.

Tez Tour also notes that China and Vietnam have shown strong performance in 2026 sales, supported by expanding air capacity and competitive prices.

Demand for Turkey is maintained in the fall

One of Turkey's advantages in the Russian market is that the season can continue after the summer.

In RST's evaluation dated August 25, it is noted that Turkey's sales from September to November have remained close to the same period of the previous year, with demand improving in recent weeks. Tez Tour also reports that it has received reservations for September, October, November, and the New Year period.

During the same period, an increase in the average sales price of Turkey packages is also observed.

According to RST, which shares data from Sletat.ru, the average amount of packages sold to Turkey in 2026 has increased by 2.5% annually, reaching approximately 196 thousand 600 rubles. The average booking window for Turkey remains around one month.

These two data should be read together from the perspective of hotels.

The demand from Russian customers for Turkey continues, but price sensitivity and timing of purchases are still important parts of the sales strategy.

7 million tourists do not automatically mean high revenue

While the number of tourists is the most visible data in source market assessments, it is not sufficient alone from the perspective of businesses.

The number of visitors arriving with package tours, the average number of nights stayed, the hotel segment chosen, and how much is spent outside the facility determine the financial impact.

In a TÜBİTAK-supported study conducted in Antalya, 48% of the 611 foreign tourists interviewed were Russian visitors. The research particularly examines the impact of the all-inclusive system on tourists' mobility outside the hotel.

This issue is strategic for the Russian market.

A high resort volume can generate strong overnight stays for hotels in Antalya. However, for the overall gain of the destination economy, gastronomy, shopping, culture, entertainment, and tourism services must also share in tourist spending.

For hotels, the main indicators are overnight stays and price

The increase in the total number of visitors from Russia from 6.9 million to 7 million corresponds to a nominal growth of about 1-2%.

Therefore, the success of 2026 for hotel businesses should not be measured solely by the number of people.

It becomes more important to know whether the same visitor comes with a higher room price, whether the length of stay has changed, and how much revenue the hotel generates per booking.

Especially in a high-cost environment, maintaining occupancy alone does not guarantee profitability.

While maintaining high volume in the Russian market, it is critical not to erode ADR with excessive discounts, to make tour operator contracts considering cost increases, and to apply correct pricing in months outside the high season.

The risk of excessive dependence on a single market continues

Russia's strength is an advantage for Turkey.

However, a destination becoming overly dependent on a few large source markets also creates risks.

Exchange rates, flight capacities, geopolitical developments, or sudden changes in the purchasing power of Russian consumers can quickly affect destinations like Antalya with high bed capacities.

Therefore, developing large European markets like Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as Poland, Romania, the Netherlands, and distant markets, is important for income diversity.

Expanding the source market portfolio without losing the Russian market can contribute to more resilient growth for Turkish tourism.

Approaching 2019 levels remains an important reference

The pre-pandemic period is still an important comparison point for travel from Russia to Turkey.

The approximate levels of 7 million in 2025 and 2026 indicate that the Russian market has reached a very high volume again. RST also defined this level as close to pre-pandemic size in its 2025 evaluations.

However, the next goal should not only be to catch up to the old visitor numbers.

Considering the increasing operating costs Turkey faces, producing more economic value from the same number of tourists is becoming increasingly critical.

Stafflink's view

7 million Russian visitors is a strong volume indicator for Turkey. However, in our opinion, the main point to pay attention to is that the growth rate appears limited.

The Russian market is not disappearing; on the contrary, it continues to be one of Turkey's strongest source markets. However, alternatives like China, Vietnam, Egypt, and others are expanding the options for Russian consumers.

Therefore, the strategy for hotels in Turkey should not be based solely on "more Russian tourists."

While maintaining the current high volume, developing products that extend the season, increase revenue per guest, and boost spending outside the hotel is becoming more valuable.

If the threshold of 7 million is reached by the end of 2026, the news will not just be about a new number of tourists. It will be one of the indicators that Turkey has entered a period of sustainably managing high volume rather than rapid growth in the Russian market.