Winter Ice Cream Sales: What Does the 30% Figure Tell Businesses?

Ice cream is one of the products that many businesses push to the back of the menu or completely remove when summer ends. A new industry report published in the United Kingdom is questioning this habit.

According to the autumn-winter section of the Soft Serve Forecast 2026 study prepared by Comelle, the soft serve and shake brand of Lakeland Dairies, more than 30% of out-of-home ice cream sales occur during the winter months. The statement notes that 70% of these sales are made on impulse, and the share of ice cream-based desserts in total sales rises from 33% in summer to 46% in winter.

At first glance, the figures suggest that ice cream has transformed into a category that operates year-round. However, a more careful evaluation is necessary when examining where the data comes from and which channels it covers.

How Reliable is the 30% Figure?

In Comelle's statement, the footnote “PFG 2025” is used for the 30% and 70% figures. Additionally, it does not clarify the sample size of the research, whether sales are measured by value or quantity, which months the “winter” period includes, and which types of businesses were included in the study.

PFG, or Partners for Growth, primarily provides category management content for independent retailers and convenience stores in the United Kingdom. The organization's 2023 winter ice cream content also states that more than 30% of sales occur in winter, with 70% being impulse purchases. However, the same content discusses product cabinets, multi-packs, family-sized boxes, and “dinner at home” shopping.

This distinction is important. Packaged ice cream purchased from a supermarket cabinet does not have the same sales channel, consumption moment, and cost structure as soft serve, milkshakes, or plated desserts ordered in a restaurant.

Therefore, the 30% figure should not be seen as a definitive benchmark for directly predicting winter sales in restaurants and cafes. The data can be interpreted as an indicative finding suggesting that consumers do not completely abandon ice cream during the cold months.

Independent Data Supports the Size of the Out-of-Home Category

Although Comelle's winter figure cannot be independently verified, there are various data available regarding the broader out-of-home ice cream market in the United Kingdom.

According to a 2024 report prepared using Kantar data and a survey of 1,007 consumers by Nestlé Professional, more than 274 million ice creams were purchased in the United Kingdom in 2023. The out-of-home market value of the category exceeds £605 million, with an annual growth rate of 16.2% in value and 7% in volume.

The same data also shows that the consumption moment is not solely dependent on warm weather. 56% of out-of-home ice cream purchases occur in the afternoon, 15% in the evening, and 11% during lunchtime. 65% of consumers enjoy the product with family, friends, or colleagues.

These results do not prove the winter sales rate. Conversely, they indicate that ice cream is not just a product consumed at the beach or during summer vacations; it can fit into various consumption moments such as socializing, snacking, and ordering desserts.

What Changes in Winter is More About the Service Format Than the Product Itself

In cold weather, the demand for cone ice cream that customers eat while walking may decrease. In contrast, formats where ice cream accompanies warm desserts, transforms into milkshakes or coffee-based drinks, or is used in layered restaurant desserts may become more meaningful.

Comelle's autumn-winter suggestions also focus on this change. The report highlights flavors inspired by drinks like chai, espresso martini, and eggnog; nostalgic servings reminiscent of warm pudding and holiday desserts; and textured garnishes like roasted marshmallows, panettone, cinnamon rolls, and chocolate shells. More experimental pairings like hojicha, olive oil, and bitter chocolate are also among the suggestions.

These are not definitive sales recipes validated by independent consumer demand but trend suggestions prepared by the supplier. Businesses need to test the products with their customer profiles and existing kitchen structures rather than directly copying them.

The least risky way to keep ice cream on the menu during winter may not be to increase the number of products but to adapt the same core product to different consumption moments. A single vanilla base can be evaluated in a cone, paired with a warm dessert, as a shake, and in a seasonal cup. This way, different sales formats can be created without holding large stocks.

Adding Products to the Menu Alone Does Not Generate Revenue

The raw material cost of an ice cream or soft serve product may seem low. However, when calculating the actual contribution margin, cone or cup, sauce, garnish, waste, cleaning chemicals, electricity, machine maintenance, and labor time must also be considered.

Especially during the winter months when sales volume decreases, running the soft serve machine all day can lead to weak operations despite low product costs. The labor required to prepare, regularly clean, and shut down the machine at the end of the day should be evaluated based on the number of portions sold.

It would be more accurate for businesses to monitor the following indicators before making winter menu decisions:

• Daily and hourly ice cream sales quantity

• Dessert order rate related to main dishes or drinks

• Actual contribution margin per portion

• Unused mix and topping waste

• Machine cleaning and maintenance time

• Product's contribution to average bill amount

• Difference between non-promotional and promotional sales

• Demand changes based on temperature and days

The goal is not to "sell ice cream in winter" but to understand whether the product generates enough clear contribution to cover the equipment and labor it uses.

How Can Businesses Implement a Pilot Program?

Instead of launching a wide ice cream menu during winter, a limited pilot may yield safer results. The business can start with a single core base, two or three controlled garnishes, one shake, and one hot-cold plated dessert.

One of the products can be associated with the existing coffee or hot beverage menu. Another can be prepared with ingredients the business already uses, such as apple, chocolate, chestnut, tahini, cinnamon, or hot dough desserts. This way, it prevents the opening of new and slow-moving stocks solely for the ice cream menu.

During the pilot period, products should be monitored separately at different times, such as afternoon, evening service, and weekends. If sales are not occurring, the first solution should not be to add more toppings; rather, the product's visibility on the menu, price, service time, and relationship with main products should be reassessed.

Data Cannot Be Directly Used for the Turkish Market

The Comelle study is prepared for the UK market. Due to differences in climate, consumption habits, tourism seasons, price sensitivity, and business formats in Turkey, it would not be accurate to use the 30% figure as a local market estimate.

Shopping mall restaurants, businesses near cinemas, hotel lobbies, dessert cafes, and strong delivery brands operating in large cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir may see more consistent demand in winter. However, the same product performance should not be expected in businesses primarily dependent on coastal traffic or summer tourism.

A more reliable method for businesses in Turkey would be to analyze past POS data along with weather conditions, time of day, customer type, and product format. The winter menu should only be made permanent if the business's own data yields positive results.

Stafflink's Opinion

Making ice cream a year-round product does not mean keeping the summer menu open throughout winter without changes. If there is an opportunity in winter, it will often not be in cone sales; rather, it will emerge in plated desserts, hot-cold pairings, shakes, and small reward moments.

In our view, a more important question than the 30% figure is whether the business can use its ice cream equipment economically throughout the year. If the machine, stock, and cleaning burden exceed product income on low sales days, simply being on the menu does not provide an advantage.

Conversely, if the same base product can be evaluated in different services, employees can maintain recipe and portion standards, and the product can be prepared with existing ingredients, ice cream can turn into a measurable additional income area on the winter menu.