The Restaurant Labor Market is Cooling: Why is the Staffing Problem Not Over?

In the U.S., restaurant and bar employment decreased by approximately 32,900 people in June 2026, according to seasonally adjusted data. During the same period, the total loss in the entertainment and accommodation sector reached 61,000. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the decline is due to weaker-than-expected seasonal hiring.

This figure also served as the starting point for a podcast episode published by Restaurant Business on July 15. In the program, Restaurant Business Editor-in-Chief Jonathan Maze and National Restaurant Association Chief Economist Chad Moutray discussed what the latest employment data means for the restaurant sector.

At first glance, the picture seems simple: Restaurants are reducing staff. However, when open positions, hiring, separations, and different restaurant segments are examined together, a more complex labor market emerges.

The June Decline Should Not Be Viewed in Isolation

Monthly changes in restaurant employment can be volatile, especially due to tourism and the summer season. Additionally, the initially reported figures can be significantly revised in subsequent months.

According to the National Restaurant Association's current assessment, it was initially reported that restaurants added nearly 83,000 employees in April and May. However, subsequent revisions reduced the two-month total increase to approximately 24,000. The loss of 32,900 jobs in June followed this weaker start.

Therefore, it is not accurate to draw long-term conclusions based solely on initially reported strong hiring figures or sharp monthly declines. The data more accurately reflects that businesses are being cautious in their staffing decisions in response to fluctuating customer traffic.

As of June 2026, employment in food and beverage establishments was only 62,000 people, or 0.5%, above the levels of February 2020. While the sector appears to have numerically compensated for the losses during the pandemic, sub-segments are not progressing in the same direction.

Full-Service Restaurants Still Lagging Behind

As of May 2026, the number of employees in full-service restaurants remained 174,000 below pre-pandemic levels. Employment in quick-service and fast-casual establishments was 82,000 higher than pre-pandemic levels, while the difference in coffee, donut, ice cream, and non-alcoholic beverage establishments reached 229,000.

This divergence illustrates why evaluating the restaurant labor market as a single entity can be misleading.

Full-service restaurants require more service staff, kitchen workers, and shift coordination. Quick-service and beverage concepts can operate with shorter production processes, limited menus, digital ordering, and smaller teams. Therefore, changes in employment reflect not only consumer demand but also the direction in which the sector is growing in terms of business models.

Open Positions Have Returned to Pre-Pandemic Levels

The decline in employment in June does not mean that restaurants are no longer seeking workers.

The number of open positions in accommodation and food services rose to 776,000 in May 2026. The 12-month average was 843,000 open positions. This figure is quite close to the monthly average of 835,000 during the 2017–2019 period. In other words, the number of open jobs has decreased from the extraordinary levels seen post-pandemic; however, the demand for workers is not low by historical standards.

In May, there were 839,000 hires and 816,000 separations in the sector. The monthly net difference was only 23,000 people. Businesses continued to lose nearly the same number of employees as they hired.

This scenario indicates that the workforce problem is increasingly shifting from the question of "how many were hired?" to "how long did the hires stay?"

The Great Resignation Period is Over, but High Turnover Continues

In May, the number of employees voluntarily leaving accommodation and food services was recorded at 611,000. The average resignation rate in the sector over the past 12 months remained at 4.3%. This rate indicates that despite the overall cooling in the labor market, employee mobility in the restaurant and accommodation sector remains high.

During the post-pandemic "Great Resignation" period, monthly separations were much higher. However, the fact that employees are changing jobs less frequently today does not necessarily mean they are more satisfied with their jobs. Economic uncertainty, a decrease in alternative job opportunities, or the risks associated with transitioning to a new job may also keep employees in their current positions.

Therefore, businesses should not automatically interpret the lower resignation rate as strong employee engagement. Absenteeism, requests for shift changes, overtime, employee complaints, and separations within the first 90 days should also be monitored.

Weekly Working Hours are as Important as Hourly Wages

According to BLS data, the average hourly earnings of all employees in food and beverage establishments were $22.02 in May 2026. For non-managerial and non-exempt employees, the average was recorded at $20.32. The weekly working hours for these groups were 25.2 and 24 hours, respectively.

This data shows that looking only at the hourly rate is not sufficient for wage assessment. An employee's total income also depends on the number of hours offered per week and shift stability.

Even if a business offers an hourly wage above the market, if the employee cannot get a regular shift, the schedule changes at the last minute, or the weekly income is unpredictable, it may struggle to retain staff. Workforce planning needs to consider wages, working hours, and shift predictability together.

The Seasonal Worker Pool is Also Shrinking

The National Restaurant Association expected restaurants to add approximately 450,000 seasonal workers in the summer of 2026. This figure is below the 469,000 increase in 2025 and marks the third year in a row that summer hiring has remained below 500,000.

The traditional worker pool for restaurants is also more limited compared to the previous year. In April 2026, the number of 16–19-year-olds in the workforce was approximately 200,000 lower than in the same month of the previous two years. Young workers make up 20% of the sector's workforce, while the 20–24 age group accounts for 22%.

This situation may extend the hiring process, especially for seasonal destinations, quick-service restaurants, and entry-level positions. Businesses may need to develop shift models that are suitable not only for students but also for adults seeking part-time work, retirees, and those looking for a second job.

Staffing Shortages Do Not Mean Payroll Savings

In a 2026 study prepared by the National Restaurant Association with the support of Workday, approximately 80% of operators working with staffing shortages reported that this situation severely limits their growth and success capacity.

About half of the restaurants with staffing shortages could not operate at full capacity. 43% postponed their expansion plans or changed their menu; 34% reduced their working hours, and one in five remained closed on days they would normally be open.

According to the study, filling hourly positions takes an average of 16 days, while filling managerial positions takes 46 days. It takes an average of 31.8 days for new hourly employees to reach productivity that covers their cost to the business; for managerial and salaried employees, it takes 72.2 days.

Therefore, reducing the number of people on the payroll may lower labor costs in the short term, but it can create higher costs through lost sales, longer service times, overtime, and the departure of current employees.

What Metrics Should Businesses Monitor?

The total number of employees or the labor cost ratio does not solely indicate workforce health. Restaurants need to track at least the following metrics on a branch and shift basis:

• Time to fill open positions

• Employee loss in the first 30, 60, and 90 days

• Difference between planned and actual hours worked

• Absenteeism and last-minute shift changes

• Overtime and external staffing costs

• Sales and service capacity per employee

• Internal fill rate for managerial positions

• Lost open days and service hours due to staffing shortages

These metrics help distinguish whether the business is genuinely more efficient when the number of employees decreases or if it is losing capacity and service quality.

The Number of Paid Employees is Increasing in Turkey; Staffing Questions Persist

According to TÜİK's May 2026 data, the number of paid employees in accommodation and food service activities in Turkey reached 1,443,612. In the same month of the previous year, the number was 1,406,251; the annual increase was calculated at 2.7%. The data covers paid employees in SGK and other administrative records.

This increase indicates that the sector continues to generate employment. However, the data does not explain the number of open positions, employee turnover rates, the shortage of qualified workers, or how long employees stay with the business.

The regional structure of the tourism season in Turkey, employee housing, transportation, high living costs, and job continuity at the end of the season directly affect hiring. Businesses need to plan not only the number of people needed before the season starts but also accommodation, meals, transportation, shift arrangements, and post-season career opportunities.

Stafflink's Perspective

The fundamental issue in the restaurant labor market is evolving. While the primary question post-pandemic was "Can employees be found?" in 2026, the question has shifted to "Can the right staff be economically maintained under variable demand?"

In our view, the slowdown in hiring does not mean that businesses have solved their human resources issues. While open positions are normalizing, employee mobility remains high, full-service restaurants have not returned to pre-pandemic staffing levels, and staffing shortages continue to limit operational capacity.

Businesses that will gain an advantage in this period will not be those with the lowest number of staff, but those that create shifts suitable for demand, manage the first 90-day employee experience, develop department managers, and measure labor costs alongside sales capacity.

Technology can shorten hiring and planning times. However, it cannot solve poor scheduling, weak management, and uncertain working conditions on its own. Sustainable efficiency in restaurant operations depends more on retaining the right team than on employing fewer people.